James 1:6
6 But let him ask in faith, nothing wavering. For he that wavereth is like a wave of the sea driven with the wind and tossed.
There’s been some talk about something happening in October that will shape the imminent election. For any interested on what these events might be, this is an interesting article. That article is probably pretty strongly conspiratorial to a lot of my readers, but my point isn’t to point out any conspiracies or to lend credence to particular theories.
My objective today is to say “stand firm” and go into this election with much prayer and faith. Regardless of what happens, how accurately it was predicted, or how complicit any parties may be… the point remains that if it does affect the election then it doesn’t matter who was behind it, if anyone. So I beg of you, all of you, have faith and do not waver! I’m not going to presume to tell you who to vote for. However, don’t be tossed about, prayerfully make a decision and then stick too it, whatever happens.
I’m not saying a nuke will detonate, or that I believe we’ll endure some kind of attack. I don’t know even that anything will happen. We might not even realize as subtle winds toss us, so let us be watchful and prayerful, and seek the Lord’s guidance.
As a side note, when you’re studying out your decision, keep in mind that there are more choices than two.
I’m no economist, but I know some basics and I have been thinking a lot about things since the whole credit crisis and the bailout. Now I’m going to make some predictions. Take them with a grain of salt.
Stocks have been crashing, markets have been freezing, mortgages and loans of all kinds defaulting, all in a interdependent way. Additionally, silver and gold have seen a dramatic drop in price against the dollar, and have really stayed remarkably low for a while now, going on week two. This is the brunt of all my thinking, why in the world, in times of economic trouble, are the traditional securities, gold and silver, so darn low?? Real estate prices are low. Gas prices are low. Stock prices are low. Just about anywhere you look you find more low prices.
The only conclusion I could come to is that indeed it is not the stocks that are crashing or the values of gold and silver going down. What we are really seeing is the value of the DOLLAR going up! Absolutely remarkable IMO. Of course there’s an explanation, it goes back to the interdependencies of the last paragraph. There is a credit crunch, or credit freeze, or credit crisis. Whatever you call it, short answer: people are hoarding money. Nobody wants to let it go, nobody wants to lend it out not knowing if it’ll ever come back. This produces a scarcity of the dollar, and what is scarce and in demand becomes more valuable.
The take home point is that you can look at things from a different point of view. In Newtonian physics you might take a particularly hairy problem, transform it into another frame of reference, and come out with a much easier problem. I’ve followed this financial crisis with intensity, and I’ve spent a lot of brain power trying to wrap my head around it. I understood that housing prices were down because of defaulted mortgages, I understood that businesses were having a hard time getting loans because these credit default swaps permeated the market. What I couldn’t wrap my head around is how it’s so darn far reaching, even to gold and silver, and, well, everything.
This is where I found it useful to change my frame of reference. Instead of asking why everything else is so cheap, instead I ask “why is the dollar so uncharacteristically high valued?”
What we have is an artificially scarce dollar. The dollars are there but nobody is trading them. Normally, this would result in the same thing we are seeing, dollar value goes up, price of everything else goes down, and eventually things play out, people learn who to trust, money flows again, and everything goes back to normal. Arguably, if the crisis is big enough, things might not get to normal, or at least not converge to normal in any orderly fashion. If and when things get back to relatively normal, those who acted when the dollar was artificially valued high will have made a killing.
However, we have an additional variable, a big one, to the tune of near $1 trillion dollars pumped into the system in a very short time period. Dollars are guarded jealously, the government pumps tons of dollars out, those also are hoarded and the value of the dollar remains at this high point. Now, when people finally decide to trade their dollars again, and this they will do, we won’t ONLY go back to the original value of the dollar, but instead the dollars value will go back down PAST its original value. Prices will sky-rocket. Gas will return to $4/gallon AND THEN SOME. Same story with everything else with fluctuating prices. Gold and silver will go back to their pre-crisis points AND THEN SOME, perhaps even stocks will come out way better than they were pre-crisis.
Perhaps if things get really bad, what people might perceive is a horrifying devaluation of dollars, getting the message to get rid of their dollars. This would serve to exacerbate the falling price of the dollar. You go from hoarding to hot potato. We just might yet see hyperinflation in our boastful US of A. Just maybe the Lamanites CAN get into Zarahemla.
My brother points out that $1 trillion is not a very large percentage of the total money supply. However, it is enough to push the dollar below it’s previous trend line, and coupled with peoples interpretations and resulting actions, it could be enough to be devastating.
How long till this all goes down? That I’m not so sure of, nor how fast it will happen. I’ve heard others quoting as long as a 5 year ‘recovery’ period. All in all, the slower the recovery the better off we’ll be. If the recovery happens too fast, watch out for hyperinflation.
The bailout could in fact perform favourably, it might actually serve to broaden the recovery curve I mentioned. Then again it might not, I don’t pretend my analysis is that detailed. As an aside, I’m not opposed to the idea of using money to solve this problem, what I am opposed to is using taxpayer money. And what I think is particularly dangerous is using money in a way that increases the money supply. This easy credit, $1 trillion of “new” debt against the American people, is a huge gamble to make.
Word to the wise, take advantage of the high dollar value right now. Some speculate (in different terms) that the dollar will be at it’s highest mid-winter. But if you want to be safe, buy now. If you have stocks DO NOT SELL THEM.
You might ask, “but if we all go buy right now, won’t that bring on the ‘too fast’ adjustment you were talking about?” That’s a good question, the answer is the more that buy now the better, because I guarantee you that “everybody” is not going to be doing that. The vast majority of people will buy when things get ugly. So the more that buy now, the more that serves to spread the distribution. So not only is it the best thing for you to do, it also serves to help the economy overall.
I don’t claim to be prophetic by any means, but I reserve the right to say “I told you so.” I also reserve the right to be wrong. :)
The blogosphere is rife with discussion on gay marriage and the LDS Church’s involvement in California. I would like to do my part in the battle for family. I pray this post will have positive effect in that battle, however modest it might be.
First of all, I’ve already said how I feel about group rights. Gays don’t have rights. Human beings have rights. Gays happen to be human beings. Good, we’re on the same page.
That said, this isn’t really about gay rights as much as it is about gay marriage, but it brings me to my first point.
Marriage is not a right.
For all the talk about gay rights you can mostly chalk it up to human rights that need to transcend prejudice. In other words, instead of clamoring for “gay rights” they should instead be insisting that they be afforded the already existing human rights. Gay marriage, on the other hand, is a prime example of a group inventing new rights so they can feel the same as everyone else regardless of their decisions. It’s like a people with dreadlocks inventing a right to lay their heads on your table simply because you don’t mind another person without dreadlocks doing it.
Marriage is fundamental to society.
This is entirely incident to marriage not being a right, but is yet a powerful argument against the thought that marriage should be a right. Marriage is the very institution by which children have parents, both mother and father. It is the core of the fundamental unit of society—family.
Marriage involves more than the couple.
Intimate relations are not just about consenting adults having a good time. There is ever present the possibility of new life. This new life has rights just the same. It has needs, physical, emotional, spiritual.
Husband and wife have a solemn responsibility to love and care for each other and for their children. “Children are an heritage of the Lord” (Psalms 127:3). Parents have a sacred duty to rear their children in love and righteousness, to provide for their physical and spiritual needs, to teach them to love and serve one another, to observe the commandments of God [etc.]
Children are entitled to birth within the bonds of matrimony, and to be reared by a father and a mother who honor marital vows with complete fidelity.
—The Family: A Proclamation to the World
It is because of this sticky situation that marriage is instituted. The very purpose of marriage is to give children stable homes, to assure where possible that when children are created they have a mother and a father. Once you realize this, you realize that gay marriage isn’t the only thing you ought to be worried about. Fornication, adultery and divorce come to mind. Alas, this post is about gay marriage. Indeed, homosexual relations cannot result in offspring, so the very reasons for instituting marriage don’t even apply to the deviants. Yet they insist they have a right to marry. Again I propose it’s merely about them feeling the same as everyone else, regardless of their personal choices. It’s validation, nothing more.
Government should be involved in marriage.
Many of my libertarian friends throw around the idea that government should step out of marriage completely, leaving it a private and religious matter concerning only those involved. This is one of few places where I diverge from the libertarian camp (though not necessarily libertarian ideals). As stated previously, marriage inherently involves more than the parties involved. It involves family and new life; it involves society as a whole. It is in the interests of everyone involved (and everyone is involved, who among us was not born of a mother and a father?) and we should take every opportunity to encourage marriage over promiscuity and counseling over divorce. We should take every opportunity to afford children the privilege of being born into the marriage relation, and where that’s not possible to be adopted into such (no, I’m not saying single parents should give up their children, though they shouldn’t be discouraged to do so). The government is the vehicle by which the people are governed. Whereas the people deem it in society’s interest to afford children the opportunity to develop under the guidance of bonded mother and father, encouraged to stay together, for better or for worse, in sickness and in health, thus is born the state sanctioned institution of marriage.
I’d like to clarify somewhat on my previous post, mostly as a response to my brother’s comment thereon.
I thought long and hard about making that post in the first place. I read comments that said Romney answered the best he could without becoming entrapped. I read comments on disgust with the “fake smile” on his face the whole time. Mainly the comments defending him where the well constructed ones. The ones against were mainly personal attacks. This nearly led me to drop the issue and give Romney the benefit of the doubt.
I thought about it further however, and did some research on the controversy of medical marijuana. Here’s
one quote:
Along with California, nine states have passed laws permitting marijuana use by patients with a doctor’s approval: Alaska, Colorado, Hawaii, Maine, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont and Washington. Arizona also has a similar law, but no formal program in place to administer prescription pot.
So that’s 10 or 11 states that legalize marijuana for medical use, depending on how you count. So really at the base of this controversy is whether the Federal Government will trump the state laws and arrest users in those states (and their doctors).
This controversy is fundamental to the question in the soundbite. He’s essentially asking, “will my state’s law apply or will your law?”
Romney answers that he’s not for the legalization of marijuana, but that doesn’t answer his question. Is Romney going to encourage states to not pass such laws or is he going to trample the state’s laws with federal laws? Now here it gets sticky. As Hans said in his comment, the president would merely execute the laws, not make them, but the fact is a president has an enormous amount of influence over what laws do or do not get passed. In any case, here’s a couple possible answers Romney could have given.
- I will uphold the law, if the law says you will be arrested then that’s what I uphold.
- I believe that marijuana should not be used in any circumstance and I would support any legislation that would make it illegal on the federal level.
- I will stand behind state laws, though I would like to see all states make marijuana illegal.
Any one of those answers fits within his broad “I am against the legalization of marijuana” statement. Read them closely, however, and they have more than subtle differences. So which one does he really mean? That’s what I want Romney to own up to, and that’s what the man in the wheelchair was trying to get at.
Pretty scary stuff. I don’t think that we necessarily will face another
great depression. We are, however, really on the verge of a recession
(which is just a specific level being reached in the current trend we’re
already in). Inflation is absolutely happening quite consistently. And I do
think another great depression is completely within our grasp if we really
want it, and wanting it may very well be no more than being content with
the current trend.
I have felt the effects of this poor money management in very real ways.
Gas is an obvious example which I’m sure we all feel, monthly grocery
costs rise, you can even see it in vending machines and laundromats. The
price just goes up and up, never down. Tuition is more imposing year
after year after year, with no end in sight. Will the next generation be
able to afford college? If they do manage to “afford” it, will they ever
pay off the debt in their lifetime? I wonder if my youngest brother will
even be able to afford it.
Ron Paul is the ONLY candidate I’m aware of whose platform is less
government, less spending, less inflation, less debt, less war, less
interference in our personal lives, all in all, LESS INSANITY.
Anyway, here’s the article that prompted my rant.
http://www.downsizedc.org/blog/2008/jan/14/protect_your_money
I’ve seen similar figures from other sources.
And if you don’t know who Ron Paul is, or especially if you’ve heard of
him and your knee-jerk reaction is “lunatic” (thanks to our glorious
media), please check out his website. (please also note that those donations
are from common folk, not big lobbyists).
“If you would not be forgotten as soon as you are dead and rotten, either write things worth the reading, or do things worth the writing.”
—Benjamin Franklin
There is a notion that you should make a mark on the world, lest you disappear. I, too, have dreamed of having some constant named after me or some universal equation associated with my head of wiry hair. This measure of success is a daunting one to meet. The world has a finite memory and you’re in competition with billions.
On the final exam you’re only graded on knowing that universal equation. In the end of ends it’s more basic than that. A humble shop owner, honest and helpful, can be counted as successful as the most appreciated nobel prize winner, or a loving husband and caring father. Noble are the prize winners, as are the loyal.
For those interested, our reception in utah is this Friday. Sep 8, at 6:00. There is a map at http://von.fugal.net/registry. Hope to see anyone I know there!
It has been a crazy month. Crazy good, that is. I finally got married! The wedding was in Newport Beach, California. The Temple was absolutely beautiful. All the pictures came out really great. We also took pictures on the beach after the ceremony. It made the dress dirty, but the pictures are great. I’ll post some when I get them on my computer.
Things are now winding down. We’re mostly moved in to our apartment with only a few boxes left to unpack. Only one last push for our last reception, then we can slow down just a bit.
The other day I was scrounging around for something to make for dinner. We were low on food stuffs, but there was yams. I read a potatoes au gratin recipe once and wondered if it would convert well for yams. Here was my chance to try it. The original recipe, from the LionHouse Cookbook, is as follows:
- 12 potatoes, cooked
- 6 tablespoons butter or margarine
- 6 tablespoons flour
- 1 teaspoon seasoned salt
- 3 tablespoons salt
- 1 teaspoon garlic salt
- pepper to taste
- 1/4 teaspoon dry mustard
- 4 cups milk, heated
- 2 cups shredded cheese
First I scaled down the recipe for two people. Of course I substituted yams for the potatoes and got those cooking. Next I made a roux with 2 tbsp butter and as much flour. The tricky part was how to season the sauce to go with yams. I did away with all the different kinds of salts and just used a dash of the plain kind. I dug through the spice cupboard and decided to spice it thusly:
- 2 teaspoons yellow curry
- 1/2 teaspoon nutmeg
- dash of thyme
- pinch of basil
- 1/2 teaspoon lemon juice
- pepper
- 1/3 cup shredded cheddar
After adding 1 cup milk with a nice slow simmer to thicken, the yams were done. I cubed them and stirred them into the sauce. The whole thing went into a baking dish with some more cheese to the top, and into a 370 degree oven for about 15 minutes.
Overall it was very tasty, I was worried maybe I put too much curry in it, but that turned out just fine. It did come out a little runny. My sauce fu was a bit off that day (and lots of days, actually). I strained my brain for something to replace the cheddar but as you can see I ended up using it. Marshmallows would have been nice for the top, but I had none. Next time I’ll throw in some veggies, perhaps carrots or cauliflower.
My laptop finally came back. I sent it in sometime in the end of March, around the 27th, they fixed it and sent it back about a week later. After a moment of silence for the re-imaged hd, I plugged it in with excitement, ready to boot up and enjoy my beautiful screen again. As I did this my roommate informed me of some fiery sparks coming from the power connection. “Wha?!” I looked for myself; more sparks were visible. Then I could smell the magic smoke.
I found a loose screw floating around by the power input. I removed it and hesitantly sent the laptop back to HP again. Now here again another week or so later I finally have my laptop back. It works this time and I’ve got linux back on it. It’s good to have you home, dernhelm.
That’s right! To Cassandra Jesse Bartz. Her parents were out visiting for the weekend. I asked them, and asked her. They all said yes! More info here.
